Economy

This Will Kill the Economy Long-Term

There are many factors that can help an economy to grow, including productivity gains, wage growth, sound governmental policies, healthy banking systems, etc. A lack of all of these items will hurt economic growth, and there is one more often overlooked item that can and will devastate an economy over the long haul.

It’s probably not what you think, but I’ll give you a hint: think Japan. What is a major issue that is facing Japan? Low birth rates and a disproportionate amount of older persons compared to younger persons. Why does this matter?

Minimum: Statistically, a country needs approximately 2.1 births to have a stable population. If you want to bury yourself in statistics, then you can read reports from the U.N. or The World Bank. Although there are lower mortality rates than in the past, fewer births will mean a declining population and a disproportionate amount of older persons. By the way, the world’s population is expected to stabilize and/or decline by the end of this century.

Disproportion of elderly: In Japan, the population of elderly persons is much higher than in the U.S. Unfortunately, with lower birth rates there are less younger people able to physically take care of the elderly and also financially. Systems like social security will not be able to continue in a healthy fashion if there are not enough younger people available to contribute towards the system.

Basic math: If there are less people available to purchase services and products then economic growth will stagnate or decline. This can be offset somewhat by productivity gains and wage increases to an extent. Also, there will not be enough candidates to fill employment opportunities at businesses, which will stifle growth further.  More people = growing economy.

Myths?: I believe it started back in the 1960’s with doomsday scenarios of overpopulation and a strain on the resources of the planet. It really hasn’t panned out, but there have also been other modern inventions and policies that have stifled population growth. There is one statistic that I’ve heard that states the entire world’s population can fit in the State of Texas comfortably. Even if this statistic is way off and it would take the entire United States, then that would leave the rest of the world wide open.

Solutions: There are a few solutions to address this problem. One is immigration from countries or regions with high birth rates, such as Africa to countries with low birth rates, such as Japan. This would take changes to immigration policies enacted by governments.  The other solution is to encourage families to have more children and not to wait too long to do so. What is the worst that can happen – you may need to buy a massive van to drive your family around?!

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